What are the key indicators to help predict the direction a country’s market index is heading? I invest mostly in index funds, so I would like to be able to get a sense of which countries are likely to do better than others. I guess GDP is a good thing to look at, any others?
Not so much GDP but GDP growth rates and country stability and political direction. Here is a link to current GDP growth figures and fund performance comparisons.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070803/43352_id.html?.v=1
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Not so much GDP but GDP growth rates and country stability and political direction. Here is a link to current GDP growth figures and fund performance comparisons.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070803/43352_id.html?.v=1
References :
short run, impossible to tell. In the long run (aka 10 years and beyond), 8-10% a year.
References :
The things you had to look for is country’s foreign policies, foreign direct investment growth rate, foreign reserves, trade defecit or surplus, interest rates & inflation rate and afcourse GDP is a solid indicator of country’s economic position but don’t forget the other decribed factors which makes GDP of any country sound.
hope it helps
References :
There are more and more global companies
which prospects are not linked to a specific country.
Also markets around the world tend to move in sync,
although at different speeds.
This said, you are quite right that a country GDP growth
is a key indicator. This makes that emerging countries
see usually better market performance than "mature"
countries.
On the other hand it is sometimes difficult to get reliable
information on their companies and there is a smaller
choice of companies listed in their stock market.
That makes a specific market risk (high volatility).
Morality : diversify geographically !
.
References :